Japan - Large Retailers' Sales (August)
Released by: Industrial Statistics Office, Japanese Ministry of Economics (monthly report)
Time: 08.50 (JST)
What is it?
The total value of goods sold in large retail stores, such as supermarkets, department stores and chain convenience stores.
As retail sales can vary considerably according to seasonal factors, the headline figure is a seasonally-adjusted percentage change in sales.
Why is it important?
This is a firsthand measure of retail consumption, which is clearly directly tied to consumer spending, which is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy.
If sales are high in large retail stores, it follows that consumer spending is high, which suggests high levels of confidence amongst consumers and augers well for the health of the economy. If consumption is very high it can create inflationary pressures, however.
What are market expectations?
A poll conducted by Bloomberg forecasts -1.7%, compared with last month's reported figure of -0.7%.
Japan - Retail Trade (August)
Released by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (monthly report)
Time: 08.50 (JST)
What is it?
A measure of the combined value of all goods and services sold in the month at retail venues throughout Japan.
The headline figure is a percentage change (figures are given for both month-on-month and year-on-year).
Why is it important?
The figure paints a picture of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. If sales are high, it follows that spending must also be high, and that consumer confidence is likely to be high as well.
Higher consumption should spur economic expansion, but may also fuel price rises. An overheating economy runs the risk of high inflation.
What are market expectations?
Retail Trade is expected to increase by 0.2% (YoY). The month-on-month figure is expected to fall by -0.2%.(figures from Bloomberg).
UK- M4 Money Supply (August)
Released by: Bank of England (monthly report)
Time: 9.30 (BST)
What is it?
It is a measure of all currency in circulation including notes and coins and money held in bank accounts. It is also referred to as 'Broad Money.'
Why is it important?
It is an important inflationary indicator, as the exchange rate is affected by monetary expansion.
UK- M4 Sterling lending (August)
Released by: Bank of England
Time: 9.30 (BST)
What is it?
It is sterling lending released by the Bank of England to the M4 private sector which consists of UK residents other than monetary financial institutions.
Why is it important?
A high figure may fuel economic growth as it generally means that UK industries can afford large expenses. However, a high figure may be an indication of an overheated economy although generally a high reading is positive for the pound.
UK - Mortgage Approvals (August)
Released by: The Bank of England (monthly report)
Time: 9.30 (BST)
What is it?
A record of the number of loans approved for home purchases over the previous month.
Why is it important?
The number of mortgage approvals is generally considered to be a leading indicator of the housing market. Strong increases in mortgage approvals suggests a burgeoning housing market, which can have a trickle-on effect to the wider economy.
What can we expect?
A Bloomberg survey of analysts predicted 30k from a previous figure of 33k.
UK- Net Consumer Credit (August)
Released by: Bank of England (monthly)
Time: 09.30 (BST)
What is it?
It is a figure released by the Bank of England which shows the amount of outstanding debt held by consumers.
Why is it important?
The level tends to follow the direction of the economy, rising during periods of economic expansion due to more consumer spending power and falling during a recession. However, in the long term, too much consumer debt can result in a slowdown in economic growth. Consumption decreases, and bankruptcy may result if consumers become overburdened and are unable to meet repayments. The headline figure is the outstanding debt held by consumers.
What are market expectations?
A Bloomberg survey of analysts predicted 1.0B from a previous figure of 1.1B.
Eurozone - Consumer Confidence (October)
Released by: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (monthly report)
Time: 11.00 (CET)
What is it?
A survey that measures the sentiment of consumers across the EMU.
The survey contains queries regarding personal finance, employment, savings and general expectations about the economy.
The figure is derived from the difference between positive and answers. A positive figure therefore indicates positive consumer confidence and vice versa.
Why is it important?
If consumer confidence is high it should generally be good for the economy going forward: if consumers are confident about their finances, they are more predisposed to spend. If confidence is low, spending is likely to fall. Low consumer spending hampers the economy, whereas high spending tends to spur economic growth, although it can lead to rising consumer prices.
What are market expectations?
Economists polled by Bloomberg gave a median forecast of -19, which is the same as last month's figure.
Eurozone - Economic Confidence (September)
Released by: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (monthly report)
Time: 11.00 (CET)
What is it?
This is a survey of consumer sentiment towards the eurozone economy.
Why is it important?
The index derives from the surveys carried out by the European Commission based on certain sector indicators such as; Industrial Confidence (40%), Service Confidence (30%), Consumer Confidence (20%), Construction Confidence (5%), and Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (5%).
A high figure shows a positive outlook to the economy and that levels of investment, business spending and purchasing are healthy.
What are market expectations?
Economists polled by Bloomberg gave a median forecast of 87.3, which is slightly lower than last month's figure of 88.8.
Eurozone - Industrial Confidence (September)
Released by: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (monthly report)
Time: 11.00 (CET)
What is it?
It is a measure of Euro zone industry sentiment based on a survey of production expectations from industrial executives.
Why is it important?
The European Commission keeps track of recent order levels and the build-up of inventories. The higher the level of industrial confidence, the brighter the outlook for future business spending and capital investment.
Although manufacturing accounts for approximately merely a quarter of business in the eurozone, GDP volatility is mainly attributable to industry and therefore has an impact on overall European growth.
A figure higher than zero is positive, while a level below zero shows negative industrial confidence.
What are market expectations?
A survey of analysts by Bloomberg predicted a figure of -12 compared to -10 previously.
U.S. - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (August)
Released by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (monthly)
Time: 08.30 (EST)
What is it?
This is a measure of how much consumers are spending each quarter.
The report takes into account expenditure on durable goods, consumer products and services and excludes components such as food and energy. These are not included as they are particularly volatile, and may be skewed by seasonal factors. Such short-term fluctuations may distort the data, so that the core figure may present a more stable depiction of expenditure.
The headline Core PCE figure is reported as a percentage change for the quarter.
Why is it important?
Robust levels of personal spending shows that consumers are ploughing money into the economy, which should fuel growth. Personal expenditure can therefore provide an indication of economic trends. It also has a direct affect on inflation: high levels of consumption may push up prices.
Significantly, one of the Fed's primary measures of inflation is derived from PCE.
What can we expect?
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast 0.2%, from the last release of 0.3% month on month. The year on year figure remained unchanged at 2.4%.
U.S. - Personal Income (August)
Released by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (monthly)
Time: 08.30 (EST)
What is it?
A broad measure of how much US employees are earning, this report looks at the pre-tax income that households receive from employment, investments and transfer payments (a payment of money from the government to an individual for which no goods or services are received in return, e.g. welfare or social security payments).
Why is it important?
Because Personal Income mainly consists of wages from employment, this report can be used to gauge the employment situation.
The report's effectiveness is somewhat mitigated by the fact that it is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures.
What can we expect?
Analysts polled by Bloomberg gave a median estimate of 0.2%, from last month's figure of -0.7%.
U.S. - Personal spending (August)
Released by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Time: 08.30 (EST)
What is it?
It is a measure of total expenditure by individuals including durable and nondurable goods.
Why is it important?
From this figure, investors are able to get a good idea of market sentiment and economic direction as two-thirds of the economy is reliant on consumer spending. Investors are able to gauge where most expenditure is directed and consequently determine the companies in which they want to invest.
What are market expectations?
Economists polled by Bloomberg predicted 0.2% compared with a previous figure of 0.2%.
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